MultiStage Exit Analysis… more…

In a past post I discussed the various profit exits and how they impact overall results.  We also use a 200 day simple moving average as an exit, which I wanted to look at this time.  As with the 5% profit exit, there is no magic in the specific MA200 number.  In fact, a good robust trading system should still work with slight variations to parameters like this.  Below is a table showing some basic results for a 200 day SMA, as well as a 100 and 50 day stop.

MA Exit	200	100	50
ROI	265%	237%	205%
Max Drawdown	30.71%	33.32%	35.32%
Sharpe	1.92	1.90	1.97
UPI	45.36	40.09	41.65
Worst Month	-18.6%	-16.7%	-12.5%
2nd Worst Mo.	-15.7%	-15.0%	-7.6%
3rd Worst Mo.	-9.0%	-13.4%	-5.6%

As you can see, there are clear trade-offs with these different parameters.  One is not necessarily better than another, as it depends on an individuals performance requirements or metrics.  For example, if pure ROI is the most important thing then the MA200 has performed the best historically.  But if the worst case losses in a given month are important (a way of measuring drawdown) then the MA50 has performed much better.  These sorts of trade-offs are typical in trading systems. 

Good Trading…