Monday, April 20, 2009

RUT Update 4-20

In spite of a massive, multi-standard deviation move down today, there is very little to report on our RUT trade.  This month we're tracking a RUT Condor/Calendar combination trade that is moving along nicely.  As you'll see by the picture, the massive move down did little more than move us to the middle of the profit graph. 

Sorry that it's not more interesting, but in my mind this is actually good stuff.  I only wish I had picked up a couple of the cheap Puts that I mentioned on Friday.  I was planning to do that today, but they got real expensive, real quick this morning.
The big story for today, in my view, is the RVX.  The index that tracks the implied volatility of the RUT was up nearly 10% today.  You might remember that Friday it closed out resting right on a multi-month support line.  This week was destined to be interesting.  Either it would break through the support and confirm the rally we have seen, or we would get a reversal... as you can see, the latter has taken place.  The massive RVX gain moved it pretty much dead center in this long range-bound channel.
As usual, I don't know what happens next... I'll just manage the trade as I see it.
Good trading...

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