RUT Condor 4-1

As discussed in my previous RUT update, I now have on two layers of Condor trades.  The first 2/3 was put on last week, and the final 1/3 this week.  Things are quite ideal, but the trading month is still very early.  Here is the P&L graph as it sits today:

As you can see, it doesn't get much better.  One of the areas I try not to get fooled by is the probability numbers near the top.  Currently this trade shows about a 96% probability of profit.  The tricky thing is that I will need to make an adjustment far before that point, so it really doesn't mean much.  Estimating the probability of adjusting far more difficult.  Anyway, things are great right now, so we'll just sit on our hands until next week and then take a look at adding some calendars. 

One side note, I am also keeping a close eye on the RVX.  For the past few months it has been trading in a range of mid-40s to mid-50s.  The ideal time to add the calendars is when it's at the low end of the range - assuming we think it will head back up to resistence.  RVX is currently at about the mid-point (52).  This will have some bearing as to when we put the calendar on.

Good Trading...