Monday, March 16, 2009

NDX Condor 3-16

Today was an interesting day.  The VIX and RVX numbers started off the day up, and even when the Dow was up nearly 100 pts. they were still up.  This is a pretty good sign that there is some concern, even fear, in the market. Traders are protecting themselves against the down side, thereby bidding up implied volatility.  It seemed like only a matter of time before the market took a dump.  As readers know, I've been tracking the VIX closely as it has approached the recent support line.  You gotta love how well behaved it is:

Will it work it's way back to the low 50's and reach resistance again?  I'll be watching.  It seems likely that we'll continue down a ways.  There's a nice shelf of support around 740 on the SPX, and another at around 717.  What happens around the 740 level will be interesting to watch.  At this point I will make sure positions are well balanced.

How about the NDX Condor... as I mentioned yesterday, I was sitting on a bit of a skewed condor, looking to put another spread on the call side to balance it out.  Today was the perfect day for it.  I put in an order early this morning, which executed on the rally around 8:30am, to sell the 1350/1375 spread.  Later in the day, on the selloff, I was able to pick up 15 down points on that spread.  Here's the way things look now:

All in all, this looks pretty good.  Delta currently being at -16 seems good, but if we get more rally it's a concern.  Given my current belief about the market I'm okay with it and will adjust if necessary.  The shortest Deltas I have (the short 1325) is about 50 points from being in trouble.  We're in good shape.
Good Trading...

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